WP3: Scenarios

3.1 Development of chemical emission scenarios of agricultural and urban systems in Europe under GC, considering circular economy and non-toxic environment options.

3.2 Development of agronomic land use and management scenarios for different representative climate and socio-economic scenarios.

3.3 Identification of main pest pressures considering farm management options under the named scenarios.

3.4 Estimation of chemical inputs under different environmental characteristics of selected European agricultural and urban systems.

Description of Work and Role of Specific Beneficiaries / Partner Organisations 

ESR 1 at UU will develop combined climate/land use/agronomic management scenarios for selected case study regions in the future. Existing climate models are downscaled to the catchment scales for the selected regions, with special emphasize on changes in temperature, rainfall intensities and droughts. Existing Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios of land use and agricultural change, based on the IMAGE (Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change) model, will also be downscaled to 5 minute resolution (10×10 km). With current databases of chemical emissions of pesticides and veterinary medicines, geographical maps are made on environmental quality depending on land use. Technological assessments of emission reduction are assessed based on future sustainable production systems (livestock and crop). These downscaled scenarios will be compared to the bottom up approach from ESR3 and further tailored if necessary. ESR 1 results will be used for ESR2-3, ESR6 for the STREAM-EU model, and ESR12 (mitigation options for future improvement). ESR2 at UoY, addressing urban systems, starts with a development of an inventory of the major types of chemicals (including pharmaceuticals, personal care products, paints and coatings, home use pesticides, chemicals emitted by vehicles) used in urban systems. Using case-study urban systems located in Northern, Central and Southern regions alongside existing usage data and models and projections of future change partly depending on the same SSPs as used within ESR1 (demographics, migration, human disease, climate change mitigation strategies, changes towards a circular economy and technological developments) we will then develop emission scenarios for different chemical classes for the current situation and for 2050. GIS mapping will allow us to visualise how emissions of urban-associated contaminants to urban river systems via both point and diffuse emissions will change over time. ESR2 results will be used to inform the exposure modelling activities in WP4 (ESR 4,6) and in the risk assessment activities in WP6 (ESR 13). ESR3 at BOKU will identify challenges of pest pressure and chemical inputs in regard to farming options in the future broken down to farm level (bottom-up approach), involving partners in the field of operational pest monitoring and warning. Hot spots of critical chemical emission risks (e.g. based on representative information of land use, orography, timing of crop management options) will be identified additionally using local datasets, and considering multiple weather risks. Feedbacks from farm level simulation will be used for specifying ESR1 downscaling processes. ESR3 results will used for WP 4 (ESR4) and the risk assessment work in WP 6 (ESR6).

Description of Deliverables

3.1         Global climate/land use/agronomic management and emission scenarios downscaled to the three case study regions

3.2         Chemical emission scenarios of urban systems in selected case study regions

3.3         Chemical emission scenarios from pest management options under scenarios in selected agricultural systems